If Ur Testes Hurt Is This A Hernea

After a period of absence commitments because we're back here to try to create some ideas operating in the forex market. No, I was not under an umbrella in the Maldives, I only had to be done. I hope to keep until August a bi weekly update, but I assure you nothing, you stay tuned, something interesting always reads it ... then holiday in August last, where it is not known yet, the first plane left for some island and then a well-deserved rest!

But we take our analysis of the situation and make a ripilogo. We

Euro Dollar, that after taking the millimeter target indicated porrtandosi weeks ago, rebounded to the top of the bearish channel. Following the Dow Theory, from which we often take inspiration for our analysis, we say that the trend is still bearish, and it will be until we have a clean break on the upside of that channel. Admittedly, the cross has come to test the trendline strongly superior dynamics, we now look to rebound towards 1.3440 area and a further test of 1.3480. Consider instead the certificate above 1.5000 area as a signal of trend short order. We already stressed the possibility of a summer in the lateral area between 1.3600 and 1.3300, but for now riamne always the most likely scenario following the rules of the Old Testament, but there is truly like an obsession. It 'a scenario that does not help us now in the operation, so we rely current scenarios, which are best suited to get operational. For a short

expect the decision to cross back below 1.3420 area. Today will probably be weak and a day of adjustment, but by tomorrow we will have more opportunity to understand the direction of the trend!

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Euro Dollar Euro Dollar target achieved.


reached the third reported to target 1.3260.
Now that we have achieved our goals is necassario look again at the cross on a timeframe more and try to identify other possible scenarios, scenarios that typically cercanno confirmations from day to day.

It 'broke the bearish channel was dark green, the image that we removed for clarity, but that is still considered as a valid channel for an eventual return to it.

One thing that catches one's eye is the versatile and complete to stretch up to 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, which incidentally, passes right by the old part of a long-term bullish channel. It 's a very important support, but the test is not granted, even if its failure could crack the trend of medium / long term.
But we move on upcoming scenarios.
support that we are testing at this time Motl is important, in fact, pass on these different levels of support, a 25 period SMA, 50% Fibonacci, a static and a bearish trendline. In short, the numbers for a nice bounce there would be tutti. Consideriamo anche che la discesa di questa settimane si è verificata con volumi in diminuzione, e che si avvicina l'estate. Riproprioniamo quindi quello scenario laterale di cui abbiamo parlato nei post precedenti, movimenti che avrebbero come range le due linee fucsia. Ammetto che questo è uno scenario azzardato, nella situazione attuale è quello meno probabile, di fatto non possiamo cogliere segni evidente di un movimento del genere, tutta via non è privo di fondamenti; un laterale giustappunto ora quando non si sa se gli USA alzeranno i tassi ( poiché le attese del taglio tassi è stata momentaneamente smentita), mentre il prossimo rialzo tassi europeo è stato ampiamento scontato, quindi un clima di incertezza tipico di andamenti side.

Scenarios short, a break of support that we are testing now, there likely would lead to a test of support identified at the beginning of the post, in quibndi area around 1.3180, the other scenario is a brief pullback to 1.3370, we have confirmation of this 1.3300, and then passed to the return of the bearish channel visible on the daily (the green one of the last post, for instance). To confirm

scenarios average expect the breaks lievelli 1.3180 and 1.3370, breaks that will adequately compared with the trend of the cross and its movements, especially in smaller timeframes like daily and 4 hours.

reach the target right now we are out of the market, then we study the situation further to obtain the cleanest signal!

Remember the stop loss, and not intesterdirvi with a single scenario, so do not be surprised if they are denied!

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Euro Dollar, Yen Pounds



Euro Dollars discesone side after the close of last week.
The cross could stir during the afternoon with Paulson's speeches, Moskow, and Greenspan. What is more attention to the words of Greenspan, who may overreach on the decision about interest rates.
If the bearish channel was still visible on the daily observed this side would be interpreted as a dispersion, an idea reinforced by the fact that we are still within the channel and the reaction to the rise of Friday. Another interpretation is that of a side of consolidation, in which case we would expect even a false break to the upside of the side channel red, then finally pierce the bearish channel and go to the planned target around 1.3260.
The best thing in my opinion is to try to exploit the breaking of the side, with stop-loss is not too tight. Recalling that both the medium and short-term trend is bearish, so it is better to open a short position, as being in trend is less risky.
therefore await our signs, always stop loss in the hand and carefully.

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narrow side, which moves!


Appena apro bocca sembra che caschi il mondo. Il supporto in fase di test è stato sfondato e siamo arrivati a testare la parte bassa del canale segnalato...grandi brividi alla rottura...sembrava proprio il tanto temuto recupero dello yen, ma poi come solito fare si rientra all'interno della canalizzazione. Tanti stop presi nei mercati, una scrollata alle varie bolle economiche, ed ora?
Come già scritto mi aspetto nuovi massimi ancora, ma come al solito il consiglio è cercare di seguire il trend gradino per gradino, per adesso la discesa sembra concludersi in un nulla di fatto, anzi il rimbalzo è stato molto deciso e fa presupporre una grande resistenza da parte dei tori. Certo sarebbe meglio attendere ed osservare il comportamento di inizio settimana per prendere decisioni sul da farsi, dando un occhiata a timeframe più piccoli rispetto al daily. Un ritorno deciso sopra 240.00 confermerebbe l'ipotesi di nuovi massimi, ovviamente sempre pronti ad essere smentiti.
Quelli descritti sono solo scenari possbili per aiutarci a capire l'andamento del cross e ricavarne quindi una corretta operatività, armati sempre di stop loss.
Un ritorno sotto il supporto del canale darebbe segno di proseguimento discesa. C'é stata un esplosione di volatilità, ed è necessario qundi accertarsi che questa sia l'inizio di una fase ad alta volatilità, che necessita stop loss più larghi e molta ma molta più attenzione, oppure un evento circoscritto...giusto to shake the soul.
interesting week for this cross, starting with data already on that night, and focus attention on interest rates, that the yen should remain at 0.50%, but especially for the speech of the President of the BOJ Fukui, caprpire trying to conduct the next in terms of economic policy and interest rates in Japan.

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Pounds Yen, update!


was a bit 'which does not update the blog on this fantastic ... we were left to cross signals if it had broken new records are 240.00 and they did.

From a broader perspective to the cross seems to be weakening ... nevertheless I think that each way to go yet 247/249.00 area to.

E 'as important as usual, accompany the basic idea of \u200b\u200bco strategies and monitor the daily cross, but without being blinded by the erratic movements.
We tested an important support right now, someone has probably already entered long, but I think it would be to wait until the closing day. The channel

blue outlines quite well the situation, a weak upward trend with low volatility and the possibility of adopting strategies Swing.

Stop Loss at hand!

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Euro Dollar, which way do we go? Another collapse for China


In the forums there is talk of lowering the end cross euro dollar, even his friend Giovanni Solinas Blogger shows an interesting and beautiful analysis of the cross showing it looks over the descent.

As usual nothing is certain and will try to show an analysis that helps the reader understand the situation, it is not my intention and never will give trading signals, but rather to give indications of scenarios and to clarify things. Above

propose the old pipes that have accompanied us during these months, and it is right now and then see them again, also because they continue to do their dirty work, and are very helpful, in my view, to identify the points of the market most critical.

In the image I added the Fibonacci retracements, is a tool used by many traders to understand the most important levels during a period of retracement. We can see that the cross is bounced off the 38.2, just this rebound has led many traders to think of a resumption of the long trend.

then add the typical retracement (which statistically has the highest number of times, but that does not mean that is bound to happen) is 50%, who happens to pass prorpio intersection of two major trend line (I highlighted with the red square). This does not mean necessarily that we get to that level, but it certainly would be the most optimal support for an attack to try the latest if it lead to a disastrous split fall.

I personally consider the present a mere technical rebound of the descent, and absolutely I am not surprised, in fact it was waiting for a few days. Moreover, if we move on daily timeframe we find our famous green channel, which is accompanying us for several weeks in this descent, offering great ideas operational.


Let's see how the closing of yesterday's candle (which, as Max has gone beyond the upper trendline) is below the dynamic resistance. Serve a statement of the prices above for us to change your mind for a long scenario. Let's say then that as long as we remain
below this resistance the more likely scenario is the one di andare a trovare il nostro supporto in area 1.3270.
Che se ci pensiamo bene non è niente di così sconvolgente, anzi è del tutto normale avere una buona discesa dopo una lunga salita.

In una visione a più ampio termine studiando il comportamento passato del cross, vediamo come questo solitamente dopo il raggiungimento di un nuovo massimo stia sempre facendo un range laterale compreso tra il nuovo massimo ed il precedente circa. Possiamo inoltre aiutarci tracciando una nuova trendline fucsia parallela a quelle già tracciate, passante per il nuovo massimo. Ed avere un nuovo punto di riferimeto.

Dal punto di vista fondamentale vediamo l'Eurozona ancora forte, ma come abbiamo già sottolineato molti politici europei e nostrani puntano già il dito su un euro sopravvalutato, vedi sarkozy, che al G8 probabilmente si farà sentire.
Mentre il mercato credo abbia già scontato ampliamente il prossimo rialzo tassi (che sembra dovuto) ci troviamo di fronte a nuovi problemi. E' stata acclamato il dato sulle importazioni ed esportazioni. Le spese delle importazioni soprattutto sono diminuiti, per renderci poi conto che questo è dovuto alla grande aumento dell'importazione Cinese a discapito di altri paesi. La Cina lo sappiamo benissimo che trattieni lo Yuan sottovalutato...ma cosa succede nel momento in cui, sotto le pressioni Americane, dovrà alzarlo? Semplicemnte scopriremo che l'Economia Europea non è cresciuta per il suo solo merito.

then add this NEWS is not of little relevance:

June 5 2007 22: 10 NEW YORK (WSI

Intevenuto at a conference in South Africa, the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, was disappointed those who expected a mention of a possible cut in interest rates, appearing confident about economic growth and worried about a possible acceleration of the upward inflationary pressures.

The speech, which has in fact added little to what emerged from the minutes of the Fed published last week, has reduced the possibility 'of a reduction in the cost of money by the end of the year, raising even the hypothesis of a possible upward revision in interest rates which, remember, are stable at 5.25% since August.

To reinforce this argument and 'was also an update on the service sector, jumped to the highest levels of a year, more than economists' expectations.

So be careful when we talk about scatafascio the United States, because Europe seems a bit 'overrated. The games are always very political and economic purposes, and many times we poor mortals (especially me) you will miss it. And then antennae up and we are alert.

monitor the market every day and try to follow him without illusions created us!

Stop loss in hand and good gain.

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were saying that there were signs for the beautiful transfers. Is working hard to make the Shanghai composite attualemnte that is experiencing a -9.35%. They hold instead

the remaining Asian markets, which seem not to worry about the collapse of China.

await the opening of EU and U.S., and we are alert, we can not know what the reactions.