In the forums there is talk of lowering the end cross euro dollar, even his friend Giovanni Solinas Blogger shows an interesting and beautiful analysis of the cross showing it looks over the descent.
As usual nothing is certain and will try to show an analysis that helps the reader understand the situation, it is not my intention and never will give trading signals, but rather to give indications of scenarios and to clarify things. Above
propose the old pipes that have accompanied us during these months, and it is right now and then see them again, also because they continue to do their dirty work, and are very helpful, in my view, to identify the points of the market most critical.
In the image I added the Fibonacci retracements, is a tool used by many traders to understand the most important levels during a period of retracement. We can see that the cross is bounced off the 38.2, just this rebound has led many traders to think of a resumption of the long trend.
then add the typical retracement (which statistically has the highest number of times, but that does not mean that is bound to happen) is 50%, who happens to pass prorpio intersection of two major trend line (I highlighted with the red square). This does not mean necessarily that we get to that level, but it certainly would be the most optimal support for an attack to try the latest if it lead to a disastrous split fall.
I personally consider the present a mere technical rebound of the descent, and absolutely I am not surprised, in fact it was waiting for a few days. Moreover, if we move on daily timeframe we find our famous green channel, which is accompanying us for several weeks in this descent, offering great ideas operational.
Let's see how the closing of yesterday's candle (which, as Max has gone beyond the upper trendline) is below the dynamic resistance. Serve a statement of the prices above for us to change your mind for a long scenario. Let's say then that as long as we remain
below this resistance the more likely scenario is the one di andare a trovare il nostro supporto in area 1.3270.
Che se ci pensiamo bene non è niente di così sconvolgente, anzi è del tutto normale avere una buona discesa dopo una lunga salita.
In una visione a più ampio termine studiando il comportamento passato del cross, vediamo come questo solitamente dopo il raggiungimento di un nuovo massimo stia sempre facendo un range laterale compreso tra il nuovo massimo ed il precedente circa. Possiamo inoltre aiutarci tracciando una nuova trendline fucsia parallela a quelle già tracciate, passante per il nuovo massimo. Ed avere un nuovo punto di riferimeto.
Dal punto di vista fondamentale vediamo l'Eurozona ancora forte, ma come abbiamo già sottolineato molti politici europei e nostrani puntano già il dito su un euro sopravvalutato, vedi sarkozy, che al G8 probabilmente si farà sentire.
Mentre il mercato credo abbia già scontato ampliamente il prossimo rialzo tassi (che sembra dovuto) ci troviamo di fronte a nuovi problemi. E' stata acclamato il dato sulle importazioni ed esportazioni. Le spese delle importazioni soprattutto sono diminuiti, per renderci poi conto che questo è dovuto alla grande aumento dell'importazione Cinese a discapito di altri paesi. La Cina lo sappiamo benissimo che trattieni lo Yuan sottovalutato...ma cosa succede nel momento in cui, sotto le pressioni Americane, dovrà alzarlo? Semplicemnte scopriremo che l'Economia Europea non è cresciuta per il suo solo merito.
then add this NEWS is not of little relevance:
June 5 2007 22: 10 NEW YORK (WSI
Intevenuto at a conference in South Africa, the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, was disappointed those who expected a mention of a possible cut in interest rates, appearing confident about economic growth and worried about a possible acceleration of the upward inflationary pressures.
The speech, which has in fact added little to what emerged from the minutes of the Fed published last week, has reduced the possibility 'of a reduction in the cost of money by the end of the year, raising even the hypothesis of a possible upward revision in interest rates which, remember, are stable at 5.25% since August.
To reinforce this argument and 'was also an update on the service sector, jumped to the highest levels of a year, more than economists' expectations.
So be careful when we talk about scatafascio the United States, because Europe seems a bit 'overrated. The games are always very political and economic purposes, and many times we poor mortals (especially me) you will miss it. And then antennae up and we are alert.
monitor the market every day and try to follow him without illusions created us!
Stop loss in hand and good gain.
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