We have not believed in and we closed positions too early, essentially we have forgotten the simple technique of the three targets, the position where it divides closes in 3 parts and 1 / 3 to reach each target. technique designed for the faint of heart as we used to do intraday, but who likes to exploit too long movements, a technique that allows us to stand with my heart in peace, bringing home the bread slowly. It certainly does not maximize profits, but it's healthier! We closed all the second and third target ...? And the third was almost achieved, we are missing very little!
The flag that we had reported it worked perfectly, the cross had a fracture acceleration of those rare on this cross! A Dollar Euro that looks set to run indefinitely. But we do not believe, prefer to play in the short cross, and follow the step by step, trying to capture the oscillations. What we can not too bad, but we can improve together!
Take the weekly chart and see the destination of the trip. Recall that the trend is long-long (we say since we opened the blog, and said even before), and also the tent of medium / long short is now!
you start to feel "too high", "I begin to buy dollars," but not only among traders! I have friends (normal people, average Italian with some savings) who said they want to buy dollars when the cross comes at 1.4000 (not far from here). Of course I tried to dissuade them from this investment, I have not understood what you are made to influence, probably banks and newspapers. So if banks and newspapers are talking to at least 1.4000 it goes to 1.4500, I say with a smile, but it is not a target rash ... in fact, is a warning ... do not buy dollars now, as long investment. Neither in terms of graphics or the fundamental point of view, the dollar looks set to make major reassessments. Currencies are dangerous, notwithstanding the move again for a "low risk".
said that we continue the analysis of the chart.
We have quite a weekly chart, where we can see that the resistance we accompragna for months is back in the testing phase, is already the third time since we tested is plotted on the graph, and you know, I've gotten spoiled and basically we have the hope (not a trader dovrebbe mai sperare) che funzioni ancora e ci faccia fare un bel rimbalzo. Prima di tutto ricordiamo che le nostre analisi , soprattutto quando le facciamo su timeframe ampi, non vogliono essere di proposito precise, tutte le linee di riferimento tracciate vogliono essere solo segnali di zone calde, dove è possbile avere elementi di svolta. Era questa resistenza il famoso terzo target, ma influenzati dalla nostra idea di "laterale estivo" (risultata fallace), siamo stati poco freddi e non ci abbiamo creduto fino in fondo. Anche questo fa parte del trading, bisognerebbe essere sempre motlo tecnici, speriamo che qualcuno abbia fatto meglio di noi, anche se non ci lamentiamo più di tanto!
Quindi considerando la resistenza, considerando il Commodity Channel Index (which we quote below) that seems to be making a difference, let's start really thinking about a rebound! Another factor to consider is that the latest fluctuations in the figures are 8 cross from minimum to maximum, but now we would be around 6 figures. This obviously weakens the argument of the rebound from these levels.
So to better understand the situation we have to move on shorter timeframe, perhaps looking for some conformation of dispersion.
We took 4 hours, how often do, and where we can find good momentum ee pattern of the various cross. After the flag
bearish / rectangle which we spoke, we are facing a bullish channel, one of those famous canals to break the trend. This is not a pattern written in the books of technical analysis, but thanks to some 'experienced and combinations of other tests we can give a meaning. As usual, we believe technical analysis, but we try to give a figure and so meaning is always different and better suited to the chart, more pragmatically as possible.
This "flag" at the end of a strong upward moves in the same movement of the latter, but with less force. This fact indicates loss of momentum. Another factor that pulled over and through the analysis of the volatility indicator Average True Range, visible below the price chart. The ATR measures the volatility of the graph using mathematical formula, and the classic analysis tells us that more volatility is higher than the trends are subject to sudden and violent reversals. As you can see the average volatility, and has risen a lot. Obviously the analysis of volatility in the timing does not help us, as usual (the eternal problem of traders), this could rise again as a stop going up. In this note we study the volumes, which despite being much higher than the previous days are forming a bearish divergence.
If we join together and then this analysis: loss of momentum, divergence of volumes, high volatility (ie series shifted in favor of reversal), and the resistance (which takes us so) we can come to conclusion (which unfortunately always be disproved) that the trend could be a retracement.
said that we become more pragmatic and more realistic. Although the idea and our bearish sentiment is becoming, we are aware that the analysis made on 4 hours now absolutely not prevent cross to a new high again, because yes, these tests just do not fit at all to the time factor (of which do not take their own), who is also an important part in trading, and do not indicate much less target, true reverse pattern. Then go to break this "flag" with stop loss and trailing stops entered, bearing in mind that this may prove to be greater acceleration with the break to the downside. Target of the break on the upside we set the resistance initially drawn at weekly, after which a second target is not clearly defined in the spirit of letting profits run and take advantage of the continuation of the trend (memory error above), with stop sign the first is moved to break even (to achieve the first target) and then follow any trend. As we target
bearish three targets, and being against underlying trend (which is always bull) we do not use the rule: do you run profits. First target the moving average orange, the second the blue (respectively 25 and 50 periods, moving averages applied to simple closure), the third target 1.3540 (the latter target can be modified to better support the development of corss).
Ultimately we will use the classical technique to breakout (as usual)!
Stop loss to the hand!
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