You read a lot of considerations with respect to its performance on forums and magazines, but all seem to confuse the various influences of data and changes compared to the time factor, it's just not confuse
the influence of data for the long and short term.
Yesterday the U.S. trade balance has confirmed the steady increase of the debt.
In the case of a trade balance that continues to strengthen its debt for years and years is all already discounted by the market ... everyone is convinced that it will continue to fall, and this will therefore have more influence in the long run and a few quick reactions.
The reaction in the near future there would be if the trade balance had recovered a few billion in debt .. then we ensure that it was unexpected. Now it falls schematic
1 billion or 10 are not surprised anyone, then we will have little influence in the short term, but a confirmation of long-Circulation.
To see a reversal of long to go much, much more below the channel can be traced for long-term very large (see old post), and until this is breached, the situation certainly not downward changes. Also with an eye to economy, geopolitics, etc. ... the situation of the dollar does not seem the most prosperous, as we have said several times.
Reached static area as an area of \u200b\u200b1.3700 previous highs it was natural to expect a reversal of the short, medium ... that was not only logical to expect but Reano confirmed by the side of dispersive order, as we described at the time.
is also characteristic of this cross (at least in the last two attaches, but also in the coming years will be, thanks to the economic and political situation) does not get marked trend (as potrbbe essere per i cross con lo yen o cmq con influenze dei carry trader), ma piuttosto oscillanti.
Dollaro troppo debole non fa piacere a nessuno...o cmq un dollaro debole in breve tempo...non fa piacere alla cina, non fa piacere al giappone ed a parecchi altri stati...vedere le proprie riserve monetarie (anche se stanno diversificando la maggioranza delle riserve monetarie mondiali è in dollari) svanire non è il massimo.
L'eruo è troppo forte, notare come il nuovo presidente francese, Sarkozy, abbia subito espresso la sua opinione a riguardo...c'é quindi da aspettarsi che combatterà strenuamente per un euro più debole...se no a chi esportiamo?
Inoltre se pensiamo che il petrolio (Except for wars etc. ..) seems destined to oscillate between a band of $ 70 and 50/45 dollars, and having touched his recentemte the top, we see that all urged a strengthening of the dollar.
Euro U.S. dollar falls within a well defined channel bearish short, we are now in the vicinity of the base support. If we want to keep an eye on an important relationship we move on gold. The gold in the long term (just like the euro dollar) is set to rise is now based on the channel. Any failure could affect a lot of dollar and euro on cross carry it to new lows, while observing that the bearish scenario for several days, is profiled.
In final point of the current euro dollar seems like a good cross
support for a bounce or a restart. Then wait until it is convenient to observe the behavior of the cross during the U.S. data.
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